http://mycn2.com/politics/what-to-watch-in-ky-this-fall-the-obama-effect-beshear-s-involvement-and-gop-efforts-in-house

Publication Date: May 31, 2012

Author: Ryan Alessi

What to watch in Ky. this fall: the Obama effect, Beshear's involvement and GOP efforts in House

05/31/2012 04:07 PM

Kentucky has few marquee match-ups on the November ballot. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t key story lines to watch. For instance:

  • The net change in the state House, where Democrats hold a nine-seat advantage and Republicans hope to pick up enough seats to convince a few Democrats to switch parties to give them control.
  • Whether Gov. Steve Beshear gets involved in races, particularly state Senate contests, and how he does it.
  • And the spillover effect President Barack Obama might have on other races — for better and for worse.

Trey Grayson, director of the Harvard Institute of Politics, said Republicans in western Kentucky have been eager to link Democratic candidates to national Democrats over the last few presidential races.

“They wanted to put John Kerry signs next to all the Democratic candidates because they thought that would help. And I suspect those same folks will want to put Obama signs next to the Democratic signs out west,” Grayson said. (0:30)

In the state Senate races, Grayson handicapped the open 1st state Senate district to replace retiring Republican Sen. Ken Winters of Murray. (3:15)

And he said it wouldn’t be wise for Beshear and Democrats to target the Republican incumbents with Democratic opposition — Sens. Robert Stivers of Manchester and Damon Thayer of Georgetown — because both been willing to work across the aisle on certain issues.

“Maybe it would be different if it were a one-seat margin, but the Republicans are going to keep control of the Senate. So it would be really foolish for them,” he said. (4:20)

Grayson said the biggest race is likely the 6th Congressional District — a rematch between Democratic U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler of Versailles and Andy Barr, a Republican and lawyer from Lexington. Chandler perhaps didn’t have as much respect for Barr’s chances in 2010 and Barr came within 648 votes of beating him.

“He’s not going to make that same mistake again,” Grayson said of Chandler. “I just don’t think just because you’re having a rematch and Andy will be a stronger candidate, the environment might be a little weaker.”

About Ryan Alessi

Ryan Alessi joined cn|2 in May 2010 as senior managing editor and host of Pure Politics. He has covered politics for more than 10 years, including 7 years as a reporter for the Lexington Herald-Leader. Follow Ryan on Twitter @cn2Alessi. Ryan can be reached at 502-792-1135 or ryan.alessi@twcable.com.

Comments

  • Bruce Layne wrote on June 01, 2012 09:58 AM :

    Ben Chandler will suffer the Obama Curse as some KY-6 voters blame Chandler for Obama’s failures, but the 6th district was redistricted this year to make it even more of a Democratic stronghold. Those two factors will pretty much negate each other. The political redistricting fix is in.

    The voters will have yet another unpleasant choice in this race. Chandler is looking worse, but so is Andy Barr. He has the disadvantage of having lost last time, and many voters give a candidate one shot in a race and figure if you couldn’t beat the incumbent the last time, you should make way for someone else to try because your odds of doing it next time are less.

    Probably the biggest problem that Andy Barr has is his lack of energized support. He has the support of the establishment GOP, but he’s largely seen as an establishment candidate, and Kentucky voters are liking the establishment label less with each election.

    Chandler is weaker, but so is Barr. If the GOP was serious about replacing Chandler, they should have a liberty TEA Party candidate with some serious street cred. There’s not much enthusiasm for replacing one establishment politician with another. There would be huge grassroots support for a genuine representative of the people, as we recently saw when Thomas Massie ran roughshod over the establishment GOP in the KY-4 race and will be Kentucky’s representative in Congress next year.

    But sadly, the Two Parties That Are One will only run their establishment party candidates. The only way we’re going to have good candidates is to go around the parties and recruit them ourselves, as we did with Rand Paul and Thomas Massie.

    But sadly, we’re getting two more years of Ben Chandler.

  • Cumberland Gap wrote on June 01, 2012 11:16 AM :

    The Obama Effect: big question on that is why the Democratic state and local parties do not communicate directly with voters to promote the things Obama has done that voters would like. Plus, tell them what the Republicans have done wrong. This is probably the only state who’s Democratic party is almost mute.

What do you have to say?





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