The Chatter: Nate Silver on Rand Paul's presidential path; Clinton urges Grimes to run in '14

03/20/2013 03:04 PM

So how viable is U.S. Sen. Rand Paul as a candidate in the 2016 Presidential election?

Better than the 20 to 1 long shot odds bookmakers have placed against the politician, according to Nate Silver, the numbers wizard at the New York Times’ FiveThirtyEight blog.

Silver broke down the Republican Party into an Olympic-like, five-ringed Venn diagram of ideological constituencies. And he said Paul — or any GOP presidential contender — would need a three-fifths ideological majority to clinch the nomination in his analysis .

Right now Silver said Paul is in the “invisible primary” stage of campaigning to broaden his political horizons and appeal to those ideologies within the party; something that has already started with Paul’s recent call for immigration reform and top billing in May at Iowa’s Lincoln Day Dinner, which was announced Tuesday.

“But Mr. Paul at least seems to demonstrate the interest in expanding his support beyond libertarian conservatives, something his father rarely did, and he will have three years to experiment with how to find the right formula. That doesn’t make him as likely a nominee as a more traditional candidate like Mr. Rubio, Jeb Bush or Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin. But his odds look better than the 20-to-1 numbers that some bookmakers have placed against him.”

Grimes urged by Clinton to enter 2014 U.S. Senate race against McConnell

Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes spoke privately with former President Bill Clinton at an Owensboro fundraiser for the Wendell Ford Center about challenging Republican U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell for his Senate seat.

Politico reported that Clinton was “assuring Grimes that both he and wife, Hillary, would get behind her should she decide to take on the powerful Senate GOP leader, according to several sources familiar with the matter.”

Clinton reportedly made the case that running for U.S. Senate would offer a bigger platform for Grimes than running for governor or for the U.S. House.

Lynn Zellen, a spokesperson for Grimes, told Pure Politics that Grimes is focused on her legislative priority which would allow military personnel to vote electronically while positioned overseas.

Zellen said Grimes has had discussions with legislative leaders about trying to bridge the gap between the House and Senate versions of that bill, Senate Bill 1.


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