Seum holds double-digit lead over Meyer in south Louisville state Senate race, cn|2 poll shows

10/19/2010 07:15 PM

Republican State Sen. Dan Seum has nearly an 18-point lead in his bid for a sixth term in the Senate against Democratic candidate Marty Meyer, the latest cn|2 poll finds.

Seum was first elected as a Democrat but switched parties while in office in a move that gave Republicans control of the state Senate in 1999. He has a 55% approval rating in his district. Only 19 percent disapprove of the work Seum has done, the poll shows.

He is leading Meyer nearly 52% to 34% with more than 14% undecided.

The cn|2 Poll of 452 likely Kentucky voters was conducted Oct. 13-14 by live interviewers from Braun Research, Inc. It has a margin of error of 4.6 points. Click here to view the crosstabs and details of the 38th state Senate district poll.

And a bill that Seum has filed with Senate President David Williams in advance of the 2011 General Assembly has become an issue in the race. The legislation, nicknamed the Neighborhood Schools bill, would essentially end the current Jefferson County Public Schools’ bus assignment plan. That busing plan has come under fire for requiring some students to take hours-long bus rides, as the school system tries to diversify school populations by economic backgrounds.

Critics of the bill, such as Democratic state Sen. Tim Shaughnessy of Louisville, have warned that passing a state law will force the state to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to build new schools. (Here’s a Courier-Journal article on that topic).

Still, the Seum and Williams’ proposed legislation has 72 percent support in Seum’s district, according to the poll. That underscores just how unpopular the busing plan is in that southern portion of Jefferson County.

Meyer is running for office for the first time, taking leave for his work as a district representative for U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth to do so. Meyer favors using expanded gambling as a job creator in the district.

Here’s a review of the race, from Pure Politics:

Both candidates responded to the poll results:

Seum’s reaction: “That’s excellent. I’m not really surprised given our work in the district. In 27 years, no one has ever questioned my integrity … And my opponent, quite frankly hasn’t run much of a campaign up until this point.”

Meyer’s reaction: “These numbers don’t equate to what we’re seeing at the 18,000 doors we’ve been knocking on … We have the resources to fight for every last vote in the 38th District, and we’re going to do so.”

The 38th District, which covers much of southern Jefferson County from Dixie Highway to Fern Creek, is one of the more Republican districts in Jefferson County.

According to the poll, Republican U.S. Senate candidate Rand Paul leads his Democratic opponent, Jack Conway, 47% to 43.7% — that’s in a county where, overall, Conway has been leading by double-digits. Conway is from Louisville.

Other numbers:

  • About 50% prefer Republicans control Congress
  • 48% would like to see Republicans lead the state legislature.
  • Gov. Steve Beshear has a 67% approval rating.

-Reporting by Kenny Colston


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