Sabato's Crystal Ball moves governor's race to "pure toss-up"

10/01/2015 02:02 PM

With 32 days before Election Day, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ “Sabato’s Crystal Ball” has moved Kentucky’s gubernatorial election to a “toss-up” instead of “leans Republican.”

The Republican Governor’s Association’s decision to go dark in Kentucky “was a real eye opener” as well as GOP nominee Matt Bevin’s “inconsistent performance as a candidate” both led the non-partisan group to change the outlook in the race, according to Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik.

“There’s not one thing that necessarily stands out that he’s done wrong — it’s just been kind of a number of little mistakes here and there,” Kondik said, pointing to Bevin’s refusal to endorse Rand Paul on Wednesday among other questions.

Kondik said that the campaign blunders from Bevin and insider questions surrounding his ability to lead, does not meant the GOP will support Democratic candidate Jack Conway en masse, but at the same time it was enough for Crystal Ball to change the outlook of the race.

“We had thought for a while that Bevin deserved the benefit of the doubt basically because of the party label. He could just run against Obama and potentially be able to win, and he could still do that, but we don’t see him with any advantage now,” Kondik said in an interview with Pure Politics on Thursday. “We see the race as basically a coin flip.”

“I don’t think that Conway, who isn’t necessarily a great candidate himself, is a big favorite or anything. I just think it’s basically too close to call.”

Hear the other thoughts from Kondik on the race and the wild card status Independent candidate Drew Curtis brings to the dynamic in the interview below.

Crystal Ball will have one more call “one way or the other” before Election Day, Kondik said.

About Nick Storm

Nick Storm is the Anchor and Managing Editor of Pure Politics, the only nightly program dedicated to Kentucky politics. Nick covers all of the political heavyweights and his investigative work brings to light issues that might otherwise go unnoticed, like the connection between the high profile Steubenville, Ohio rape and a Kentucky hacker whose push for further investigation could put him in federal prison. Nick is also working on a feature length bio documentary Outlaw Poet: A documentary on Ron Whitehead. Follow Nick on Twitter @NickStorm_cn2. Nick can be reached at 502-792-1107 or



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