Sabato's Crystal Ball moves governor's race to "pure toss-up"

10/01/2015 02:02 PM

With 32 days before Election Day, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ “Sabato’s Crystal Ball” has moved Kentucky’s gubernatorial election to a “toss-up” instead of “leans Republican.”

The Republican Governor’s Association’s decision to go dark in Kentucky “was a real eye opener” as well as GOP nominee Matt Bevin’s “inconsistent performance as a candidate” both led the non-partisan group to change the outlook in the race, according to Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik.

“There’s not one thing that necessarily stands out that he’s done wrong — it’s just been kind of a number of little mistakes here and there,” Kondik said, pointing to Bevin’s refusal to endorse Rand Paul on Wednesday among other questions.

Kondik said that the campaign blunders from Bevin and insider questions surrounding his ability to lead, does not meant the GOP will support Democratic candidate Jack Conway en masse, but at the same time it was enough for Crystal Ball to change the outlook of the race.

“We had thought for a while that Bevin deserved the benefit of the doubt basically because of the party label. He could just run against Obama and potentially be able to win, and he could still do that, but we don’t see him with any advantage now,” Kondik said in an interview with Pure Politics on Thursday. “We see the race as basically a coin flip.”

“I don’t think that Conway, who isn’t necessarily a great candidate himself, is a big favorite or anything. I just think it’s basically too close to call.”

Hear the other thoughts from Kondik on the race and the wild card status Independent candidate Drew Curtis brings to the dynamic in the interview below.

Crystal Ball will have one more call “one way or the other” before Election Day, Kondik said.


Subscribe to email updates.

Subscribe and get the latest political intelligence delivered to your inbox.