Comparing the polling with this week's Rasmussen and Ipsos/Reuters results

08/18/2010 02:23 PM

It’s been a big week of polling in Kentucky and it’s only Wednesday. Today, the Rasmussen Reports’ latest poll on the Kentucky U.S. Senate race came out showing Republican candidate Rand Paul leading Democratic candidate Jack Conway, 49% to 40%.

The survey of 500 likely voters, which was conducted Aug. 17, differentiated between those who were certain of their votes and those who are “leaners.”

When leaners are included in the new totals, Paul attracts 51% of the vote, while Conway picks up 41%. This is the first Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 survey in Kentucky to include leaners. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate.

Early in any campaign, the numbers without leaners are generally more significant. Later in a campaign, the numbers with leaners matter more. After Labor Day, Rasmussen Reports will report the numbers with leaners as the primary indicators of the campaign.
The race remains Leans Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings.

This comes after an Ipsos/Reuters poll taken Aug. 13-15 showed that among 600 registered voters surveyed, 435 said they were likely to vote. And 45% of those picked Paul, the Bowling Green ophthalmologist and son of former GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul, while 40% picked Conway, the state’s attorney general.

Check back later this week for the latest results of fresh statewide survey results from the cn|2 Poll. Here’s an updated comparison of polling that includes the Ipsos/Reuters and Rasmussen Reports polls:

U.S. Senate race of Rand Paul, the Republican, against Jack Conway, the Democrat:

  • Rasm. (8/17) Paul 49% to Conway 40% with 11% other/not sure
  • Ipsos/Reuters (8/15) Paul 45% to Conway 40% with 15% undecided
  • cn|2 (8/5) Paul 40.6% to Conway 31.4% with 27.0% undecided
  • SurveyUSA Courier-Journal-WHAS Poll (7/30) Paul 51% to Conway 43% with 5% undecided
  • cn|2 (7/22) Paul 41% to Conway 38% with 19% undecided
  • Rasm. (7/20) Paul 49% to Conway 41% with 10% other/not sure
  • PPP (6/30) Paul 43% to Conway 43% with 14% undecided
  • Rasm.(6/28) Paul 49% to Conway 42% with 9% other/not sure


Rand Paul’s support by political ideology:
  • Rasm. (8/17) 72% of conservatives, 29% of moderates, 3% of liberals
  • cn|2 (8/5) 58.3% of conservatives, 27.8% of moderates, 9.4% of liberals
  • SurveyUSA Courier-Journal-WHAS Poll (7/30) 81% of conservatives, 32% of moderates, 15% of liberals
  • cn|2 (7/22) 65.4% of conservatives, 18% of moderates, 11.4% of liberals
  • PPP (6/30) 68% of conservatives, 25% of moderates, 6% of liberals
  • Rasm. (6/28) 75% of conservatives, 27% of moderates and 21% of liberals


Jack Conway’s support by political ideology:
  • Rasm. (8/17) 92% of liberals, 61% of moderates and 19% of conservatives
  • cn|2 (8/5) 65.4% of liberals, 41.6% of moderates, 13.8% of conservatives
  • SurveyUSA Courier-Journal-WHAS Poll (7/30) 78% of liberals, 63% of moderates, 15% of conservatives
  • cn|2 (7/22) 75.8% of liberals, 52.4% of moderates, 14.6% of conservatives
  • PPP (6/30) 84% of liberals, 59% of moderates,  18% of conservatives
  • Rasm. (6/28) 74% of liberals, 62% of moderates, 15% of conservatives


Rand Paul’s favorability
  • Rasm. (8/17) 26% very fav., 32% somewhat fav., 17% somewhat unfav., 19% very unfav., 6% unsure
  • cn|2 (8/5) 19.7% very fav. 30.1% somewhat fav., 9.8% somewhat unfav., 15.9% very unfav., 24.0% unsure
  • cn|2 (7/22) 18.2% very fav. 29.3% somewhat fav., 15.8% somewhat unfav., 17.1% very unfav., 17.9% unsure
  • Rasm. (7/20) 22% very fav., 35% somewhat fav., 16% somewhat unfav., 19% very unfav., 8% unsure
  • PPP (6/30) 34% overall  favorable, 42% overall unfavorable, 24% unsure
  • Rasm. (6/28) 55% overall favorable, 38% overall unfavorable, 7% unsure


Jack Conway’s favorability
  • Rasm. (8/17) 19% very fav., 28% somewhat fav., 25% somewhat unfav., 18% very unfav., 11% unsure
  • cn|2 (8/5) 12.3% very fav. 31.6% somewhat fav., 12.8% somewhat unfav., 8.3% very unfav., 34.5% unsure
  • cn|2 (7/22) 14.2% very fav., 36.1% somewhat fav., 11.2% somewhat unfav., 8.1% very unfav., 28.1% unsure
  • Rasm. (7/20) 16% very fav., 33% somewhat fav., 27% somewhat unfav., 13% very unfav., 12% unsure
  • PPP (6/30) 31% overall favorable, 29% overall unfavorable, 40% unsure
  • Rasm. (6/28) 51%  overall favorable, 35% overall unfavorable, 14% unsure


President Barack Obama’s job approval rating:
  • cn|2 (7/22) 15.3% strongly approve, 25.7% somewhat approve, 13.4% somewhat disapprove, 42.2% strongly disapprove
  • Rasm. (7/20) 25% strongly approve, 17% somewhat approve, 10% somewhat disapprove, 48% strongly disapprove
  • PPP (6/30) 37% overall approve, 58% overall disapprove, 5% not sure


Gov. Steve Beshear’s job approval rating:
  • cn|2 (7/22) 12.5% strongly approve, 57.3% somewhat approve, 14.5% somewhat disapprove, 7.4% strongly disapprove
  • Rasm. (7/20) 18% strongly approve, 36% somewhat approve, 25% somewhat disapprove, 18% strongly disapprove


Which party voters want to control the U.S. House after this November’s elections:
  • cn|2 (8/5) 48.8% said Republicans, 36.5% said Democrats, 6.2% neither, 8.5% unsure
  • cn|2 6th Congressional District (7/29) 41.3% said Republicans, 42.2 said Democrats, 11.1% said neither, 5.1% said unsure

– Ryan Alessi

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