Comparing the polling with the latest cn|2 Poll

08/20/2010 05:07 PM

First, Joe Sonka at Barefoot and Progressive has an interesting breakdown of the demographics of voter turnout in recent non-presidential year elections. (The numbers he goes through is similar to the process cn|2 used in order to crunch numbers for the turnout model that goes to polling firm Braun Research for weighting of the cn|2 Poll.)

As for the results of recent numbers, here’s the latest compilation of polling, which includes this week’s cn|2 Poll:

U.S. Senate race of Rand Paul, the Republican, against Jack Conway, the Democrat:

  • cn|2 (8/19) Conway 41.7% to Paul 41.2% with 16.4% undecided
  • Rasm. (8/17) Paul 49% to Conway 40% with 11% other/not sure
  • Ipsos/Reuters (8/15) Paul 45% to Conway 40% with 15% undecided
  • cn|2 (8/5) Paul 40.6% to Conway 31.4% with 27.0% undecided
  • SurveyUSA Courier-Journal-WHAS Poll (7/30) Paul 51% to Conway 43% with 5% undecided
  • cn|2 (7/22) Paul 41% to Conway 38% with 19% undecided
  • Rasm. (7/20) Paul 49% to Conway 41% with 10% other/not sure
  • PPP (6/30) Paul 43% to Conway 43% with 14% undecided
  • Rasm.(6/28) Paul 49% to Conway 42% with 9% other/not sure

Rand Paul’s support by political ideology:

  • cn|2 (8/19) 59% of conservatives, 24.3% of moderates, 15.2% of liberals
  • Rasm. (8/17) 72% of conservatives, 29% of moderates, 3% of liberals
  • cn|2 (8/5) 58.3% of conservatives, 27.8% of moderates, 9.4% of liberals
  • SurveyUSA Courier-Journal-WHAS Poll (7/30) 81% of conservatives, 32% of moderates, 15% of liberals
  • cn|2 (7/22) 65.4% of conservatives, 18% of moderates, 11.4% of liberals
  • PPP (6/30) 68% of conservatives, 25% of moderates, 6% of liberals
  • Rasm. (6/28) 75% of conservatives, 27% of moderates and 21% of liberals

Jack Conway’s support by political ideology:

  • cn|2 (8/19) 78.55 of liberals, 55.3% of moderates and 22.8% of conservatives
  • Rasm. (8/17) 92% of liberals, 61% of moderates and 19% of conservatives
  • cn|2 (8/5) 65.4% of liberals, 41.6% of moderates, 13.8% of conservatives
  • SurveyUSA Courier-Journal-WHAS Poll (7/30) 78% of liberals, 63% of moderates, 15% of conservatives
  • cn|2 (7/22) 75.8% of liberals, 52.4% of moderates, 14.6% of conservatives
  • PPP (6/30) 84% of liberals, 59% of moderates,  18% of conservatives
  • Rasm. (6/28) 74% of liberals, 62% of moderates, 15% of conservatives

Rand Paul’s favorability

  • cn|2 (8/19) 15.6% very fav., 31.2% somewhat fav., 15.2% somewhat unfav., 21.2% very unfav., 16.2% unsure
  • Rasm. (8/17) 26% very fav., 32% somewhat fav., 17% somewhat unfav., 19% very unfav., 6% unsure
  • cn|2 (8/5) 19.7% very fav. 30.1% somewhat fav., 9.8% somewhat unfav., 15.9% very unfav., 24.0% unsure
  • cn|2 (7/22) 18.2% very fav. 29.3% somewhat fav., 15.8% somewhat unfav., 17.1% very unfav., 17.9% unsure
  • Rasm. (7/20) 22% very fav., 35% somewhat fav., 16% somewhat unfav., 19% very unfav., 8% unsure
  • PPP (6/30) 34% overall  favorable, 42% overall unfavorable, 24% unsure
  • Rasm. (6/28) 55% overall favorable, 38% overall unfavorable, 7% unsure

Jack Conway’s favorability

  • cn|2 (8/19) 12.6% very fav., 41.7% somewhat fav., 15.6% somewhat unfav., 7.3% very unfav., 22.1% unsure
  • Rasm. (8/17) 19% very fav., 28% somewhat fav., 25% somewhat unfav., 18% very unfav., 11% unsure
  • cn|2 (8/5) 12.3% very fav. 31.6% somewhat fav., 12.8% somewhat unfav., 8.3% very unfav., 34.5% unsure
  • cn|2 (7/22) 14.2% very fav., 36.1% somewhat fav., 11.2% somewhat unfav., 8.1% very unfav., 28.1% unsure
  • Rasm. (7/20) 16% very fav., 33% somewhat fav., 27% somewhat unfav., 13% very unfav., 12% unsure
  • PPP (6/30) 31% overall favorable, 29% overall unfavorable, 40% unsure
  • Rasm. (6/28) 51%  overall favorable, 35% overall unfavorable, 14% unsure

President Barack Obama’s job approval rating:

  • cn|2 (8/19) 13.3% strongly approve, 26.9% somewhat approve, 18.4% somewhat disapprove, 39.2% strongly disapprove
  • cn|2 (7/22) 15.3% strongly approve, 25.7% somewhat approve, 13.4% somewhat disapprove, 42.2% strongly disapprove
  • Rasm. (7/20) 25% strongly approve, 17% somewhat approve, 10% somewhat disapprove, 48% strongly disapprove
  • PPP (6/30) 37% overall approve, 58% overall disapprove, 5% not sure

Gov. Steve Beshear’s job approval rating:

  • cn|2 (7/22) 12.5% strongly approve, 57.3% somewhat approve, 14.5% somewhat disapprove, 7.4% strongly disapprove
  • Rasm. (7/20) 18% strongly approve, 36% somewhat approve, 25% somewhat disapprove, 18% strongly disapprove

Which party voters want to control Congress after this November’s elections:

  • cn|2 (8/19) 47.7% said Republicans, 36.0% said Democrats, 3.5% neither, 12.4% unsure
  • cn|2 (8/5) 48.8% said Republicans, 36.5% said Democrats, 6.2% neither, 8.5% unsure
  • cn|2 6th Congressional District (7/29) 41.3% said Republicans, 42.2 said Democrats, 11.1% said neither, 5.1% said unsure

- Ryan Alessi

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