Comparing the polling with latest Time-CNN, Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and cn|2 polls

09/08/2010 04:50 PM

A slew of independent polls on Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race have been released in the past week with results all over the board.

In fact, two polls that became public on Wednesday showed a 15-point difference. The Rasmussen Reports poll conducted earlier this week had Republican candidate Rand Paul leading Democratic candidate Jack Conway by 15 points, 54% to 39%, while the Time-CNN poll showed the race tied.

Last week, the SurveyUSA poll for the Louisville Courier-Journal and WHAS-11 showed Paul leading by 15 points, which prompted Conway and the Kentucky Democratic Party to question the methodology. Specifically, they took issue with the turnout model, which they say significantly under-represented registered Democrats.

And the cn|2 Poll’s latest survey of likely voters statewide had Paul ahead by 4.7%.

Here’s how the most recent poll results stack up with all the previous polling:

U.S. Senate race of Rand Paul, the Republican, against Jack Conway, the Democrat:

  • Time-CNN (9/7) Paul 46% to Conway 46% with 4% neither/no opinion
  • Rasm. (9/7) Paul 54% to Conway 39% with 6% other/not sure
  • cn|2 (9/2) Paul 42.1% to Conway 37.4% with 19.5% undecided
  • SurveyUSA Courier-Journal/WHAS Poll (9/1) Paul 55% to Conway 40% with 5% undecided
  • cn|2 (8/19) Conway 41.7% to Paul 41.2% with 16.4% undecided
  • Rasm. (8/17) Paul 49% to Conway 40% with 11% other/not sure
  • Ipsos/Reuters (8/15) Paul 45% to Conway 40% with 15% undecided
  • cn|2 (8/5) Paul 40.6% to Conway 31.4% with 27.0% undecided
  • SurveyUSA Courier-Journal/WHAS Poll (7/30) Paul 51% to Conway 43% with 5% undecided
  • cn|2 (7/22) Paul 41% to Conway 38% with 19% undecided
  • Rasm. (7/20) Paul 49% to Conway 41% with 10% other/not sure
  • PPP (6/30) Paul 43% to Conway 43% with 14% undecided
  • Rasm.(6/28) Paul 49% to Conway 42% with 9% other/not sure


Rand Paul’s support by political ideology:
  • cn|2 (9/2) 63.2% of conservatives, 31.2% of moderates, 18.3% of liberals
  • SurveyUSA Courier-Journal/WHAS Poll (9/1) 80% of conservatives, 38% of moderates, 20% of liberals
  • cn|2 (8/19) 59% of conservatives, 24.3% of moderates, 15.2% of liberals
  • Rasm. (8/17) 72% of conservatives, 29% of moderates, 3% of liberals
  • cn|2 (8/5) 58.3% of conservatives, 27.8% of moderates, 9.4% of liberals
  • SurveyUSA Courier-Journal/WHAS Poll (7/30) 81% of conservatives, 32% of moderates, 15% of liberals
  • cn|2 (7/22) 65.4% of conservatives, 18% of moderates, 11.4% of liberals
  • PPP (6/30) 68% of conservatives, 25% of moderates, 6% of liberals
  • Rasm. (6/28) 75% of conservatives, 27% of moderates and 21% of liberals


Jack Conway’s support by political ideology:
  • cn|2 (9/2) 64.7% of liberals, 46.1% of moderates and 15.8% of conservatives
  • SurveyUSA Courier-Journal/WHAS Poll (9/1) 77% of liberals, 58% of moderates, 16% of conservatives
  • cn|2 (8/19) 78.5% of liberals, 55.3% of moderates and 22.8% of conservatives
  • Rasm. (8/17) 92% of liberals, 61% of moderates and 19% of conservatives
  • cn|2 (8/5) 65.4% of liberals, 41.6% of moderates, 13.8% of conservatives
  • SurveyUSA Courier-Journal/WHAS Poll (7/30) 78% of liberals, 63% of moderates, 15% of conservatives
  • cn|2 (7/22) 75.8% of liberals, 52.4% of moderates, 14.6% of conservatives
  • PPP (6/30) 84% of liberals, 59% of moderates,  18% of conservatives
  • Rasm. (6/28) 74% of liberals, 62% of moderates, 15% of conservatives


Rand Paul’s favorability:
  • cn|2 (9/2) 14.8% very fav., 33.9% somewhat fav., 13.1% somewhat unfav., 20.2% very unfav., 17.0% unsure
  • cn|2 (8/19) 15.6% very fav., 31.2% somewhat fav., 15.2% somewhat unfav., 21.2% very unfav., 16.2% unsure
  • Rasm. (8/17) 26% very fav., 32% somewhat fav., 17% somewhat unfav., 19% very unfav., 6% unsure
  • cn|2 (8/5) 19.7% very fav. 30.1% somewhat fav., 9.8% somewhat unfav., 15.9% very unfav., 24.0% unsure
  • cn|2 (7/22) 18.2% very fav. 29.3% somewhat fav., 15.8% somewhat unfav., 17.1% very unfav., 17.9% unsure
  • Rasm. (7/20) 22% very fav., 35% somewhat fav., 16% somewhat unfav., 19% very unfav., 8% unsure
  • PPP (6/30) 34% overall  favorable, 42% overall unfavorable, 24% unsure
  • Rasm. (6/28) 55% overall favorable, 38% overall unfavorable, 7% unsure


Jack Conway’s favorability:
  • cn|2 (9/2) 15.1% very fav., 34.5% somewhat fav., 13.1% somewhat unfav., 9.6% very unfav., 25.7% unsure
  • cn|2 (8/19) 12.6% very fav., 41.7% somewhat fav., 15.6% somewhat unfav., 7.3% very unfav., 22.1% unsure
  • Rasm. (8/17) 19% very fav., 28% somewhat fav., 25% somewhat unfav., 18% very unfav., 11% unsure
  • cn|2 (8/5) 12.3% very fav. 31.6% somewhat fav., 12.8% somewhat unfav., 8.3% very unfav., 34.5% unsure
  • cn|2 (7/22) 14.2% very fav., 36.1% somewhat fav., 11.2% somewhat unfav., 8.1% very unfav., 28.1% unsure
  • Rasm. (7/20) 16% very fav., 33% somewhat fav., 27% somewhat unfav., 13% very unfav., 12% unsure
  • PPP (6/30) 31% overall favorable, 29% overall unfavorable, 40% unsure
  • Rasm. (6/28) 51%  overall favorable, 35% overall unfavorable, 14% unsure


President Barack Obama’s job approval rating:
  • cn|2 (9/2) 15.8% strongly approve, 26.9% somewhat approve, 15.9% somewhat disapprove, 38.3% strongly disapprove
  • cn|2 (8/19) 13.3% strongly approve, 26.9% somewhat approve, 18.4% somewhat disapprove, 39.2% strongly disapprove
  • cn|2 (7/22) 15.3% strongly approve, 25.7% somewhat approve, 13.4% somewhat disapprove, 42.2% strongly disapprove
  • Rasm. (7/20) 25% strongly approve, 17% somewhat approve, 10% somewhat disapprove, 48% strongly disapprove
  • PPP (6/30) 37% overall approve, 58% overall disapprove, 5% not sure


Gov. Steve Beshear’s job approval rating:
  • cn|2 (7/22) 12.5% strongly approve, 57.3% somewhat approve, 14.5% somewhat disapprove, 7.4% strongly disapprove
  • Rasm. (7/20) 18% strongly approve, 36% somewhat approve, 25% somewhat disapprove, 18% strongly disapprove


Which party voters want to control Congress after November’s elections:
  • cn|2 (9/2)  45.4% said Republicans, 36.5% said Democrats, 8.7% neither, 8.6% unsure
  • cn|2 (8/19) 47.7% said Republicans, 36.0% said Democrats, 3.5% neither, 12.4% unsure
  • cn|2 (8/5) 48.8% said Republicans, 36.5% said Democrats, 6.2% neither, 8.5% unsure
  • cn|2 6th Congressional District (7/29) 41.3% said Republicans, 42.2 said Democrats, 11.1% said neither, 5.1% said unsure

– Ryan Alessi

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