Comparing the polling: SurveyUSA's numbers mirror cn|2 Poll from June

08/01/2011 07:19 AM

Over the weekend, WHAS-11 and the Courier Journal published the results from the SurveyUSA poll they commissioned. And the numbers show little movement in the Kentucky governor’s race from the June cn|2 Poll.

SurveyUSA polled 512 likely voters from July 22-27, including some respondents through cell phones. SurveyUSA uses an automated telephone survey system. The cn|2 Poll included responses from 802 voters who cast ballots in either the 2007 or 2010 elections or both and were likely to vote in November. Live interviewers conducted the survey from June 6-8, but no cell phones were used.

In both surveys, Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear and his running mate Jerry Abramson showed more than a 20-point advantage over the Republican ticket of David Williams and Richie Farmer. Independents Gatewood Galbraith and Dea Riley polled in the single digits in both surveys.

………………………SURVEYUSA (7/30) ….. cn|2 (6/9)
Beshear/Abramson ….. 52% …………….. 51%
Williams/Farmer ……… 28% …………….. 30%
Galbraith/Riley ………… 9% ……………. 6%
Undecided …………….. 11% ……………… 14%

The numbers were virtually identical for the breakdown of party registration of respondents.

SURVEYUSA …. Repub. …. Dems. …… Indep.
Beshear ……….. 25% …… 76% ……. 34%
Williams ……….. 56% …… 11% …….. 11%
Galbraith ……… 7% ……… 6% …….. 32%
Undecided ……. 13% …….. 7% …….. 23%

cn|2 (6/9)
Beshear ………… 24% …….. 69% …….. 23%
Williams ………… 58% …….. 13% …….. 31%
Galbraith ………… 6% ………. 5% ……… 16%
Undecided ……….. 13% ……. 13% ……… 30%

The philosophical breakdown also was remarkably similar with strong majorities of moderates and liberals going for Beshear and Williams below 50% among conservatives.

SURVEYUSA ….. conserv. ….. moderate ….. iiberal
Beshear ………… 33% …….. 65% ……… 77%
Williams …………. 45% ……… 19% ……… 6%
Galbraith …………. 9% ………. 8% ………. 11%
Undecided ………. 13% ……….. 8% ……… 3%

cn|2 (6/9)
Beshear ………….. 30% ………. 64% ………… 76%
Williams ……………48% ……… 16% ………… 11%
Galbraith ………….. 5% ………… 5% …………… 8%
Undecided ………… 17% ……….. 16% …………. 5%

Geographically, the story also remained unchanged. Beshear led in each poll in each region. (SurveyUSA only listed crosstabs from four regions, while the cn|2 poll divided respondents into six congressional districts. For comparison purposes, the cn|2 poll results from the 1st and 2nd Districts were combined for “western Kentucky” results, while the 4th and 6th Districts were added together to compare to SurveyUSA’s “North-Central” region results):

SURVEYUSA … Western KY. … Louisville … North-Central … Eastern Ky.
Beshear ……….. 47% ………. 61% ……….. 48% ……… 52%
Williams ……….. 32% ………. 25% ……….. 27% ………. 28%
Galbraith ……….. 8% ………… 7% ……….. 10% ………. 11%
Undecided ………. 13% ……….. 6% ……….. 15% ………. 10%

cn|2 (6/9)……..(1st +2nd CD)…Louisville…..(4th+6th CD)…..Eastern Ky.
Beshear …………. 48% ………… 64% …………48% ………… 46%
Williams …………. 32% ………… 25% ………… 32% ……….. 27%
Galbraith ………… 4% ………….. 3% ………….. 7% ……….. 10%
Undecided ………. 16% …………. 8% ………….. 13% ………. 17%

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