Comparing the polling -- one shows dead heat, another Paul by 7

07/06/2010 02:51 PM

Public Policy Polling, the North Carolina-based firm that conducts statewide surveys as well as for Democratic candidates, released polling results Tuesday showing the Kentucky U.S. Senate race between Republican Rand Paul and Democrat Jack Conway tied 43-43.

The survey, taken between June 28 and 30, also shows 14 percent of the 625 Kentucky voters who responded said they are undecided in the U.S. Senate race.

Overall, the results are quite different than the Rasmussen Reports poll that came out last week showing Paul with a 49-42 lead over Conway, which was roughly the same as what that poll showed three weeks earlier.

Here’s what Public Policy Polling said in its memo Tuesday about the survey’s results:

Conway has low name recognition. 40% of voters say they don’t have an opinion on the Democratic candidate, including 35% of Democratic voters. Voters have a stronger opinion of Paul, 42% of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Paul. 56% of Democrats dislike the Republican candidate suggesting that voters may be voting against Paul, not for Conway.

National media attention has helped Paul gain visibility, but not popularity. Kentucky voters said that national media coverage has made them less likely to vote for the Republican candidate 38 to 29, 33% said it made no difference.

“The nation’s interest in Rand Paul’s personality has helped Conway gain supporters,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But if Conway wants to win the election he needs to earn the votes of Kentuckians, especially within his own party, based on his own merits.”

And here’s cn|2’s comparison between the two polls:

Conway vs. Paul crosstabs for voters by political ideology

  • PPP for Conway: 84% of liberals, 59% of moderates,  18% of conservatives
  • Rasm. for Conway: 74% of liberals, 62% of moderates, 15% of conservatives
  • PPP for Paul: 68% of conservatives, 25% of moderates, 6% of liberals
  • Rasm. for Paul: 75% of conservatives, 27% of moderates and 21% of liberals

Conway vs. Paul crosstabs for voters broken down by gender

  • PPP for Conway: 47% of women, 38% of men
  • Rasm. for Conway: 44% of women, 41% of men
  • PPP for Paul: 36% of women, 51% of men
  • Rasm. for Paul: 44% of women, 54% of men

Jack Conway’s favorability

  • PPP: 31% favorable, 29% unfavorable, 40% not sure
  • Rasm: 51% (very and somewhat) favorable, 35% (very and somewhat) unfavorable, 14% not sure

Rand Paul’s favorability

  • PPP: 34% favorable, 42% unfavorable, 24% not sure
  • Rasm: 55% (very and somewhat) favorable, 38% (very and somewhat) unfavorable, 7% not sure

President Barack Obama’s job approval rating crosstabs by political ideology

  • PPP: 37% overall (76% among liberals, 53% among moderates, 13% among conservatives)
  • Rasm: 41% strongly and somewhat approve (76% among liberals, 59% among moderates, 14% among conservatives)

- Ryan Alessi


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